Economist Sergei Chaly believes that Belarus will have to survive two devaluations. According to the analyst, firstly, the gradual devaluation of currency depreciation will make exports more attractive and imports more expensive. "There's another devaluation, the inside one. Fiscal and real incomes restraint," the economist said
According to analyst, these unpopular measures give the same effect in terms of macroeconomics. «In any reckoning, we have to hold devaluation twice. In short, the new president’s economic problems will be up to the sky. And they’ll have to be solved almost immediately. Whoever wins the election, everyone will be forced to do the same thing,» Sergei Chaly believes.
The analyst believes that the statements of the Belarusian National Bank on the possibility of the currency corridor narrowing only provoke panic among the population. «We should not make statements like «We’ll never tolerate anything», because people do not believe such promises. And people fly into panic when they do not believe the promises of stability. On the contrary, we should have declared the ruble devaluation, which is not accidental and unclear, but quite predictable. And in the situation of the course reduction, deposits in rubles should become more attractive,» Sergei Chaly said, the «Belarusian partisans.»
No Chance to Win at Currency Exchange Rates, Chaly
«People in December will receive their 31% loading charge and will run to currency exchange offices to insure against devaluation, adds economist. — The Belarusians have been buying the currency much more than changing into national rubles since the summer of 2010. And in June a record year on the number of purchased currency was set. There was a new record in July, which fixed the latest information in question.»
At the same time, according to economists, the sharp depreciation of the Belarusian currency will not take place. «The sharp devaluation is unlikely to happen. Since then the credibility of the national currency will have to return under the influence of inflation, which is also the devaluation, called in a different way though. And if you don’t expect a sharp jump in, there is no urgency to convert rubles into dollars. One won’t be able to take an advantage of it since the course will be changing slowly. But one needs eating every day, so dollars will have to be changed back into rubles,» Sergei Chaly said.
According to the economist, none of the contenders for the presidency of Belarus has shown the solution to these problems in their election programs. «I haven’t seen it in any of the programs. Neither candidate number 1, nor candidate № 2-17 has tried to approach these issues. They are mostly speculating on the new job places. But the paradox is that whoever wins the election, everyone will be forced to do the same thing! And these measures will be quite painful,» Sergei Chaly emphasizes.
