Belarusian economist Leonid Zlotnikov believes that the authorities can keep the Belarusian ruble from decline only in case of new loans and privatization of enterprises. "If there's no currency influx, the rate may reach 4-4.5 thousand Belarusian rubles per U.S. dollar this year," he said.
The economist also noted that the National Bank could not make the population’s feverish demand for the currency subside with its statements, «if there’s no money at exchanger offices.» According to him, the current rate of Belarusian ruble could be kept for another two to three months.
«It has been kept due to gold reserves so far. If the government starts selling industrial facilities, when there’re proceeds from privatization or new borrowings (up to $1 billion on a monthly basis for filling in various holes), then the state can hold the current course. But as far as I know the situation, it’s unlikely to wait for regular proceeds of this size on a monthly basis,» said Leonid Zlotnikov, Ale.by.
At the same time, the expert believes that people will soon give up caring about their wages. «The salaries of the population have fallen for the first month of the year. In addition, prices have been rapidly rising — 4.2% for two months is a lot. Inflation is eating up profits, which means that the majority of the population will soon stop buying currency. If money is suffice only from paycheck to paycheck, so there won’t be a large demand for the currency. Thus, the currency issue will be partially solved,» the economist shared his opinion.
It’ll be Thumbs down for Monetary System, Zaiko
In turn, the head of the analytical center «Strategy» Leonid Zaiko believes that while the National Bank «issues such calm and outwardly peaceful explanation, it will go even worse then.» «So far the population is still keeping several billion dollars on banks deposits. And when people pull their money from banks, it’ll be thumbs down for monetary system,» he said.
According to him, the Belarusian authorities have stopped thinking about the consequences of certain actions, reports the Belarusian service of Radio «Liberty.» «Belarusians were presented with $500 average wage in the run-up to the presidential elections on December 19. It was a gift so that the present leaders could win the elections. They had made various promises. But this «gift» should be paied back. It seems to me that at least $2-3 billion are urgently needed now to balance the financial situation in Belarus,» said the economist
As Telegraf previously reported, chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Petr Prokopovich, said, commenting on the current situation in the foreign exchange market, that the high demand for the currency of the population would soon subside. «Banks are meeting the demand for currency today. I think it may take several days for people to calm down and stop «raids» on the exchangers,» said the head of the National Bank.