Economic Security of Belarus — under Threat, Ministry of Economy

09.02.2011 10:59
Архив Редакция

5 of the 17 most important indicators of economic security of Belarus will not meet the threshold values in 2011. According to the decree № 199 of Ministry of Economy of December 31, 2010, the thresholds of indicators such as average wages, the foreign trade balance and the level of gold and currency reserves, will be exceeded.

The threshold value of the average salary in Belarus should be at least 80% of the average wage in the neighboring countries, but their proportion will be 55%  in 2011 (in 2010 — 50%). According to the office’s forecast, the poverty level will reach 7.5-6.5% in 2011. This figure was equal to 5.6% in 2010, its threshold must not exceed 10%, AFN.

As noted in the decision of the Ministry of Economy, foreign trade deficit will amount to 8.9-9% of GDP in 2011, while its threshold is not more than 5% of GDP. Foreign trade deficit amounted to 12.2% of GDP in 2010.

The volume of foreign exchange reserves should be equal, at least, to the level of imports for three months. The Ministry predicted that it would be the same with the volume of imports for 2.5 months in 2011. In 2010 the figure was equal to the volume of imports for 1.9-2.3 months.

Share of the Belarusian energy balance in  the country’s boiler and furnace fuel, according to the plan of the Ministry, will amount to 22.2% in 2011, although its threshold is a minimum of 30%. The figure was 20.5% in 2010.

The share of innovative products, shipped by organizations, which are mainly engaged in production of industrial goods, would be equal to 12-13% of the total volume of the shipped products against 11% in 2010, with its threshold of above 20%.

Renewal ratio of fixed assets was identified as 5% by the agency. This is just the threshold figure. In 2010, it was equal to 4.7%. Expenditure on research and development will amount to 1.2-1.4% of GDP against 0.64% in 2010. Threshold figure — no less than 1%.

Profitability of sold products will be equal to 12% against 10% in 2010, equal to its threshold. In 2011 the external public debt amounted to 20% of GDP against 19.9% of GDP in 2010. The threshold value of the index is above 25% of GDP. With regard to the domestic debt, it will make 1.4% of GDP against 1.5% in 2010. Threshold indicator — below 20% of GDP.

Debt service payments will amount to 6.8% of budget revenues against 5.7% in 2010. The threshold value — no more than 10%. The ratio of repayment and servicing of external debt to foreign exchange earnings will be equal to 3.9% against 3.4% in 2010, with a similar threshold.

The share of investment in fixed assets will amount to 35% of GDP in 2011 against 32% in 2010, the threshold figure — at least 25%. Threshold of the budget deficit is no more than 3% of GDP. The figure does not go beyond the threshold value in 2011; the same situation was observed in 2010.

The share of food imports in the amount of retail sales will make 14% against 15% in 2010, the threshold figure — below 25%. Unemployment is projected by the Ministry of Economy to make 1.2-1.5% at a threshold value of no more than 8%.

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