International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its estimate of the Belarusian economic growth from 6.2 to 6.9% in 2011. The report of the International Monetary Fund, which is the result of the review mission's work from January 25 to February 2 in Minsk, also presented a new economic forecast for Belarus. In general, according to the IMF estimates, "economic policy for 2011 is too weak."
As the report notes, «production will grow rapidly by about 7% in 2011, thus almost completely eliminating the gap between actual and potential output, which arose during the crisis; but in the future Belarus will not be able to maintain the pre-crisis growth rate without adjustment and structural reforms,» BelaPAN.
Nominal GDP to Amount to Br197.4 Trillion in Belarus in 2011, IMF
According to a new forecast, inflation will rise up to 10.5% in Belarus in 2011 (previous year — 9.9%). Earlier, the IMF forecast a 10.8% level of consumer prices.
According to the IMF forecast, budget deficit of Belarus will amount to 3% of GDP in 2011, national budget — 2.2% of GDP. In this case, deficit of the economy financing will amount to $4.6 billion in 2011.
The forecast notes that «gold and currency reserves of Belarus will grow from $5 billion at the end of 2010 to $6.2 billion by the end of 2011.»
Current Account Deficit of Payments’ Balance to Fall down to 14.1% of GDP
IMF experts also note that in the near future the Belarusian official authorities «should eliminate acute macroeconomic imbalances, arisen as a result of poor economic policies during the election period, having a strong pressure on the reserves now.»
«If Belarus loses access to funding, reserves may dry up faster than expected. The loss of reserves can lead to the loss of control over exchange rates,» the IMF experts.
In addition, according to the IMF experts, the current account deficit of payments’ balance will fall down from 16% of GDP of 2010 to 14.1% of GDP of 2011.