Experts from the International Monetary Fund forecast that the Belarusian authorities will soon have to hold "true devaluation" of the ruble in order to save its shrinking foreign-currency reserves, which are now rapidly diminishing. The Belarusian IMF mission head, Chris Jarvis, stated on March 30 that the measures, which the authorities had made earlier, were not enough to stabilize the economic situation, and, therefore, he called again for the ruble devaluation.
Chris Jarvis has noted that the depreciation is still quite effective to prop the economy of Belarus in this situation. The necessary level of devaluation, according to the IMF experts, should depend on «the overall macroeconomic situation, as well as other measures, taken by the authorities, including the tightening of monetary and fiscal policies of the country,» reports Wall Street Journal.
Head of the IMF mission in Belarus said that the National Bank had allowed local banks to perform ruble operations at levels that deviated by as much as 10% from the official exchange rate in an effort to encourage foreign-currency selling by exporters, shore up reserves and satisfy demand from local companies. However, in his opinion, this may not enough to solve the financial woes of the country.
«I would not characterize this as a devaluation, as the national bank is not offering to sell forex at a depreciated rate, only allowing banks to do so. What little info we do have suggests there is very little trading going on at these rates, meaning we shouldn’t regard this as some kind of settled rate,» said Chris Jarvis.
IMF expert also said that the loans in Russia and the Eurasian Economic Community would not be an absolute solution to the economic problems in Belarus. According to Chris Jarvis, the country’s authorities should combine financial measures with the organizational ones.
In addition, the IMF does not consider the default as a possible scenario of the situation in Belarus, as government officials have told the IMF they will give a priority to servicing debt and the country has made its debt payments for March.
Meanwhile, as Telegraf previously reported, Belarusian authorities have categorically stated that there will be no devaluation in Belarus. Nevertheless, March 29, the National Bank allowed a 10% deviation from the official rate in purchase-and-sale currency transactions among banks and business. Earlier it was recommended to deviate from the official bank rate by no more than 2%. Some economists have regarded this step as the actual 10% devaluation of the National Bank.
