Alexander Rahr, the expert of the German Society for Foreign Policy, stated that the Kremlin was waiting for a proposal of complete control over gas transit system in Belarus. "Until Russia receive it, it is difficult to imagine that Moscow will make any concessions to Minsk once again", the political scientist considers.
According to the expert, Russia «really introduces market prices for gas, but, not at once and at home». «Moscow wishes to stop subsidising of gas delivery to neighbouring countries. Ukraine has already felt Russian pressure in this question. At first Kiev agreed with gas prices increase, and then managed to reduce it, but it had to make political concessions. I believe that the same concessions are required from Belarus now», the Belarusian service of Deutsche Welle quotes Alexander Rahr.
«The Kremlin gas ultimatum to Belarus is caused by unwillingness of Minsk to join the Customs Union», — the expert said, having added that «this time Russia may carry out strict measures to achieve the objective».
According to Alexander Rahr, the statement of the president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev that Belarus should repay in five-day term the debts for Russian gas delivery is caused by unwillingness of the Belarusian leader to found the Customs union with Kazakhstan and Russia.
«The big work is done during the last 10-15, there are agreements. And Belarus which was the closest ally of Moscow in these questions all this time, brakes reintegration process», the expert said.
«Ukraine and Armenia may join the Customs Union. Therefore it is necessary to succeed in pressure on Belarus to make it agree to the game rules and not act with separate positions and requirements as it was done skilfully enough by president Lukashenko last years», Alexander Rahr said.
Lukashenko is in extremely difficult situation now, Rahr
According to the expert, the president of Belarus has tried to balance the policy, since 2007 when the first serious conflict to Russia happened, and it was on oil at that time. Alexander Rahr noticed also that the Belarusian leader tried to use European Union support, and also the western business to remove Russia on the second plan in big privatisation in Belarus.
«I think, that he failed to do it. Western countries look with interest at Belarus meanwhile, understanding that sooner or later it will be opened for the European investors. But now Europe doesn’t see a big successes in the given direction. Therefore there is not so much time for Lukashenko to make serious decisions whom to let into the Belarusian economy. He can’t buy time anymore», the political scientist considers.
Alexander Rahr added that the proposals on sale of the Belarusian oil refineries to the Russian investors made by Alexander Lukashenko «are the first signal that the president of Belarus is ready to move from his position». The expert doesn’t exclude that this time «Russia in the rigorous way wants Lukashenko to join completely the Customs union».
«Perhaps, the Kremlin will try to tighten the screws now because Russian chances on success of reintegration policy have grown. It seems, that there were no such chances in the recent years. Now the European Union is weakening, having concentrated on the decision of internal problems», the political scientist said.
«So, Moscow may take very strict measures. Medvedev chose rather good time. It is summer and nobody will freeze in Belarus now, if gas is suddenly disconnected. Therefore it is possible to press the country leaders, without being afraid of that the hundred thousands Belarusians will feel this pressure», Alexander Rahr emphasized.
