Political analyst, Yury Shevtsov, believes that there are no politicians among Belarusian opposition leaders who can be on equal level with Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko. According to the expert, the opposition is on such a decline, as it was never before. "In today's situation the current head of state has a reserve for one or two presidential terms, not less", Yury Shevtsov supposes.
«There is no question about leader changing in Belarus», political analyst believes. «In general, I do not really understand where this idea comes from. The man is alive, like healthy, don’t drink, smoke, goes in for sports».
«If we assume force majeure — I think, that the system will rapidly reproduce some kind of the same strong leader, because until there is no energy security, the state needs a strong authoritarian government to quickly resolve critical issues that constantly arise in relations with Gazprom, Russia, the global crisis, the West and so on», the expert writes in his blog.
«The current period will last, I think, five or ten years more, before the final construction of nuclear power plant, creation of conditions for stable receipt of more than ten million tons of oil per year not from Russia and other conditions», the expert believes.
Yury Shevtsov also thinks that during all this time the current system of authority will be in demand in Belarus. «But the cultural and political diversity within the country will expand: the importance of regions, groups of influence, mainly at large enterprises, mass media, regions, some cultural groups, real political opposition structures of different types (the current opposition, in a less degree), intellectuals is increasing», the analyst notes in his blog.
The question of Belarus’ membership in the EU will arise not earlier than in ten years, Shevtsov
According to the political analyst, while achieving «these parameters, there will appear preconditions for a qualitative change in the correlation between presidential and parliamentary branches». «But strong presidential republic will still remain due to the tradition. In Belarus, here will be like in France», Yury Shevtsov marks.
«During this period, dramatic growth crisis is possible in the nearest future, while we go through critical phase of transition to get resources — ensuring the energy security — not from Russia, stable relations with the EU and Russia are not built on a new level, there is no guarantee of the end of the global crisis. The crisis may lead to short and dramatic weakening of the entire system of government, but then, there will recover the same, that we have now. According to the model of past century’s last decade», the expert said.
According to Yury Shevtsov, the union of Russia and Belarus will remain. «The relations with the EU will be closer, but the issue of membership in the EU will arise no earlier than in ten years. If all comes to this», the political scientist summed up.
