Aspirant for the presidency of Belarus, an economist Jaroslav Romanchuk, believes that the conflict between Belarus and Russia over the situation with gas supplies will grow soon. According to the expert, Alexander Lukashenko will use tense relations with Russia during the presidential elections and will justify economy deterioration by Russia's actions.
«We see that there is no political will to pay for gas and work under the contract. So, we should expect an escalation of the conflict», the deputy chairman of the UCP said. «Lukashenko has Russian card, using which he will justify the worsening of economic situation in the run-up to the elections».
Jaroslav Romanchuk believes that, after July 1 the situation to become even more acute. «The Customs Union of Belarus and Russia will stop its work de facto, and Belarusian goods will actually be delivered to Russia under the same conditions as Lithuanian or American», RIA Novosti quotes the expert.
According to the UCP deputy chairman, «tough» conversation will begin between the Belarusian and Russian sides and the situation’s exacerbation will coincide with the campaign for presidential elections. «In the next couple of months, we have to be patient to watch a destructive confrontation», Jaroslav Romanchuk said.
However, the candidate for president rejected the possibility to achieve quick agreement on gas issue. «There were a lot of opportunities to negotiate, and they would have agreed, if there had been political will», Jaroslav Romanchuk summed up.
Belarus can repay the gas debt with no problems, Bogdankevich
In his turn, the former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, Stanislav Bogdankevich, believes that Belarus can repay the debt easily. «There are no problems. There is a reserve of about six billion dollars. Three billion of them is currency», the expert said.
According to Stanislav Bogdankevich, the Belarusian side has not paid Gazprom for political reasons, and does not pay because «a political bargaining is going on».
This expert is sure that no further deterioration of gas conflict to be. «I think that no escalation will be. They have an experience. Furthermore, there is an agreement on price, and it is preferential. Ukraine, Europe pay much more», Stanislav Bogdankevich said.
