Overall Opposition Rating Below the Rating of Lukashenko, IISEPS

12.11.2010 11:19

The ranking of the incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko was 44% in open questions and 48.2% in closed ones on the eve of the elections. At the same time, the overall rating of opposition candidates in close question was only 37.9%. This is evidenced by the results of a poll, conducted by a public institution "Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies" (IISEPS) in mid October 2010.

In general, the ratings of alternative candidates have increased substantially for one and a half months, passed since the September poll. Thus, private rating of Vladimir Niykliaeu has increased from 5.1% to 16.8%, Andrei Sannikov — from 3% to 8.6%, Yaroslav Romanchuk — from 2.6% to 6.1%, Ales Michalevic — from 2.3% to 6.4%.

President Alexander Lukashenko is still ranking 1st in sympathy rating — 55.5% of voters treat him very or quite positive (65.8% in February 2006). At the same time 33.7% treat the Belarusian leader rather or very negative (29.9% in February 2006). Vladimir Niakliaeu is second in the ranking of sympathy. Positive attitude to the potential candidate has been expressed by 23.8% of respondents, with negative comments of 19.4%.

In addition, according to the poll, 44.6% of Belarusians are in favor «reelecting President Alexander Lukashenko.» At the same time, 43.6% believe that it’s needed to «give a chance to a new man.»

72.3% of the Belarusians Intend to Vote, IISEPS

As reported in IISEPS, 73.2% of respondents indicated their intention to participate in elections, respectively, 13.9% of respondents refused to vote on December 19.

Institute experts have noted that the level of readiness of the Belarusians for the election is lower than on the eve of the previous presidential election in February 2006. Only 80% of respondents were willing to participate in elections then.

According to the survey, crucial questions, influencing the choice of candidate, were the overall quality of life (51.9%), rising prices (32.2%), healthcare improvement (24.8%).

However, the awareness of voters about the potential candidates remains low. Thus, only 31.7% of respondents admitted that they had enough information about the presidential candidates to confidently make a choice; two-thirds gave a negative answer. The main source of such information for people is still television — 31.8% of respondents. Only 10.5% of the respondents get the information about the applicants from the Internet.

The most significant social movement in recent years, according to the survey, is the campaign «Tell the truth!». 30% of respondents have some information about its activities. The BPF has recently been heard by only 27.6% of the respondents, public association «Belaya Rus» — 23.3%, the Movement «For Freedom» — 16.1%, Belarusian Social Democratic Party of the «People’s Hramada» — 8.6%, «European Belarus» — 6.5% and the party «Fare World» — 6.4%. However, only 16.3% of respondents have met and talked with members of any of these parties or movements in recent years.

32.9% of Belarusians Believe the Elections to be Unfair, IISEPS

At the same time, sociologists say, 41.6% of respondents consider conditions, created for all candidates, equal. 46.3% hold the opposite view. 46.8% of respondents believe that the current presidential elections will be free and fair. 32.9% of respondents hold the opposite opinion (54.9% and 32.1% respectively in February 2006).

Central Election Commission of Belarus is regarded by 41% of respondents as «an impartial body, which is guided in its work only by the law.» At the same time 47.1% of respondents believe that it is «the body, guided in its work, first of all, by the instructions of the President.» 52.4% of respondents are ready to trust the officially announced election’s results, while 30.1% tend not to trust the official figures.

In case the voters consider the results of presidential elections rigged, only 10.9% of them are ready to «take part in mass protests to try to change those results.» 24.1% of the respondents refused to participate in the protests, although being upset with the fact of falsification. However, 40.5% said they would agree with the results of the elections «as they could no longer be changed.»

The main motives of refusal to participate in the protests were the fact that people «do not believe in their effectiveness» (28.2%), they «do not have time for it» (20.4%) and the «small number of actions» (11%). Approximately 18.3% of respondents said that they «are afraid to participate in protests because it suggests repression by the authorities.»